Source: Review of African Political Economy (ROAPE) | Published: 2026-10-23
Category: 정권·선거 변동 | Keywords: democracy, election, elections, president
I have argued before that moving forward, Uganda will need General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of current President Yoweri Museveni. Or a person like Gen. Kainerugaba. This is not necessarily about the man, Muhoozi Kainerugaba. More that the trajectory of Museveni’s politics needs a man of this texture.
My intention here is neither support nor endorsement. But acknowledging Muhoozi’s usefulness in the transitional phase which must happen soon – or that is already underway. Of course, his autocratic display thus far, is difficult to ignore. But we have to acknowledge that Gen. Kainerugaba is a very important actor in an ongoing transition.
As the son of a sitting president, and current commander of the nation’s military, this is an unusual combination for anyone, and is therefore discussable on its merits. Especially with an octogenarian president, and a nervous country, surely this person – whoever they may be – is a key component.
I know, we are all running scared. Many comrades in the struggle for a good governance are still missing – Sam Mugumya. Many are rotting in jails and ‘safehouses’ across the country. National Unity Platform (NUP)’s incarcerated supporters and leaders – Waiswa Mufumbiro, Eddie Mutwe, among others – are constantly threatened with public executions by the CDF himself, who is currently the president in waiting. We are all scared.
Exile has become an even more common word in our conversations. But I will say one more time, viewed comparatively, President Kainerugaba will never be as brutal as his father – even if he so badly wanted. But presently, the country needs him sober and rightly guided.
If we are looking towards a peaceful, gradual, no-deadline transition, Gen. Muhoozi features prominently – importantly. This does not mean to suggest I’m anti-revolution, but instead aware, on the one hand, that most African countries do not have the critical mass for revolution, and on the other, that Africa remains a colonised continent with leaders being decided elsewhere . You should have read my disappointment when Mr Museveni refused to appoint him, Vice President.
Is Yoweri Museveni leaving?
It is no cynicism to say that opposition forces – mainstream opposition, civil society, activists – have struggled to challenge Gen. Museveni. In fact, as journalist Charles Onyango Obbo observed one time, most of us in Kampala on either side of the isle are resigned to the man’s death. Undoubtedly, Museveni – and his mostly Western backers – have proved too strong to beat. We have tried elections, and failed. Opposition leader, Dr Besigye led the country into peaceful protests and failed. We have tried the judicial route and failed.
Presently, a leading opposition candidate, Dr Kizza Besigye and his lawyer, and former Kampala City Lord Mayor, Eria Lukwago are fighting for their lives in an inhumane judicial system. They are both in jail. Legal rebel and president of the Uganda Law Society, Isaac Ssemakadde, and leading human rights lawyer, Nicholas Opio were forced out of the country. Activist Male Mabirizi, a pioneering activist lawyer, is in jail.
Even when Museveni’s own comrades – Amama Mbabazi, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, Miria Matembe, Eriya Kategaya, among others – nicely asked him not to stand again, and let them lead the transition, the man simply sidelined them.
In truth, besides our rhetorical belligerence, we have been defeated. Leading opposition figure, Bobi Wine is in exile, while the other key figure, Dr Kizza Besigye in jail. We on the outside are walking zombies, scared and talking in whispers. But in appreciating our blighted condition, we ought to find solace in the fact that we will have the chance to fight another day – maybe audition for a new opponent.
Indeed, it is here that I see Gen. Kainerugaba as the man of the moment. Not out of endorsement or affection, but Kainerugaba as the product of the contestations spelled out above. Indeed, Gen. Kainerugaba stands as ‘president-in-waiting’ as testimony of the success of his father’s politics – where all potential competitors in the race to replace him (inside and outside) have all been defeated, humiliated, exiled or thoroughly emasculated. Only one man is left standing.
To this end, I don’t see Gen. Kainerugaba withdrawing his preparation/candidacy for president, neither do I see Museveni seeking to fight a supposedly impatient son, say dropping him from the position of CDF. Museveni has no other choice, but to let his son execute a transition as his son finds fit.
While he might have some doubts about the way his son is going about his politics, on his part, especially owing to his advanced age (he is 82, we are told), President Museveni has reached the limits of active politics. As the Baganda have said, ‘at some point, even the best dancer exits the stage.’ Either their bodies stop moving or the drummers tire and bring the entire performance to an end.
Look, it has never happened in our ‘electoral politics’ that a man declares the intention to stand for president – as Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba recently did – at the beginning of Museveni’s term, and they are openly met by endorsements from NRM-Museveni leaning politicians and regime tycoons. This is entirely new territory. Even when it looks like part of a planned script, it is surely the end of Yoweri Museveni.
Muhoozi as centre of power
The challenge for me is whether Muhoozi is able to coalesce all power in the position he occupies. Not just through brute force, but through tact and meticulous calculation. Because over the course of the last 35 years, Gen. Yoweri Museveni thoroughly emasculated and humiliated all competing and complimentary centres of power. He thereby emerged as the singular centre of power and authority. Any contestations on anything (land deals, investors, government, tenders, religious or cultural power struggles, salary increments, judicial matters, electing speakers of parliament) all had to turn to him.
With the exception of the Buganda kingdom, all the other institutions, cultural or religious, command very little respect from their constituents. Many people love and adore their cultural and religious institutions and leaders, but when push comes to shove, they’ll ignore their calls. In this state of affairs, only Yoweri Museveni is the centre of power, and has thereby held the country together.
If Museveni disappeared all of a sudden, I’m afraid there would be absolute pandemonium, with pushing and shoving from different corners and entitled individuals. As I have argued before, we are looking at Sudan-style or Somalia after the fall of Mohammad Siad-Barre. In moments like this, entire countries are wrecked apart with the biggest victims being the ordinary folk.
It is here that Gen. Kainerugaba becomes very useful – and will be asked many questions. He has to emerge as strong enough to reign in and calm any warrying factions. Besides exhibiting brute force, is Gen. Kainerugaba and team thinking in this direction? Because before the religious institutions, parliament, or the judiciary rediscover their respect and authority, the country will need a strong man able to negotiate and cut deals with contending forces.
Continues a neoliberal embrace
Especially since Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has been working with his father – in Somalia, DRC, South Sudan, and more recently in Gaza – all in service of empire, he is useful as far as ensuring continuity of father’s shady deals with the Western world. From refugees to rabid neoliberal embrace, all this has been in the service of empire. I’m not arguing that continuity of Yoweri Museveni’s neoliberal, refugee, and mercenary policies is good for Uganda. Not at all. But a sudden or even just suspected break in these policies risks ruining the country.
While the entire continent is independent, many regimes across the continent – especially Uganda – are stable because of their servitude to empire. To this end, continuity is politically useful in the short-term, as it safeguards this small and impoverished East African country against the wrath of the Euro-American empire.
Consider Egypt and Sudan: in 2011, an ‘outsider’ to Egypt’s political class, Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, won a democratic election. But he was only able to occupy the presidency for just one year before the Euro-American empire threw him out, imprisoned him and had him killed. His problem was that he represented a complete break of Euro-American control of Egypt. Foreign actors, especially Israel and the United States, wanted to have a firm grip on Egypt for their own interests – which the previous autocrat had served unreservedly. Those interests are very alive in Uganda, too.
About 10 years later, Sudan finds itself in the same spot. The United States and other foreign interests still believe Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood is capable of winning any presidential election if one was organised yesterday. This would end in a repeat of 2011 Egypt with an ‘outsider’ to these neoliberal interests as president. When the empire understood this, they demanded for the military to keep power for an inexplicable ten-year transitional phase as they figured out who to give country to. In the pushing and shoving, the country is at war.
What Muhoozi does for us in this case is that he will appear as father re-incarnate. This is bad in the short-term but good for the long-term. While he represents continuity, Muhoozi at the same time will represent new energy, and new engagement with the imperial Western world. He does not even have to understand himself as performing this function, but since he carries his father’s blood and working relationship, it will appear as if his old man is still in charge.
Dear reader, I write the foregoing words not out of support for Gen. Muhoozi, but rather with a sense of foreboding for country – and a bit of long-term thinking. Surely Muhoozi is no one’s pick, but he is useful for our ongoing transition. My prayer is that him and team learn to pursue a more tactful and reconciliatory posture.
A shorter version of this piece was originally published by The Observer and can be read here .